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A theory of disaster-driven societal collapse and how to prevent it
- Author(s):
- Lajos Brons (see profile)
- Date:
- 2019
- Group(s):
- Humanity Studies of Climate Change
- Subject(s):
- Disasters--Sociological aspects, Weather, Climatology, Geography, Regression (Civilization), Globalization
- Item Type:
- Article
- Tag(s):
- climate change, Refugees, Disasters, Sociology of disaster, Weather and climate, Collapse
- Permanent URL:
- http://dx.doi.org/10.17613/51rk-d378
- Abstract:
- One of the effects of climate change is an increase in extreme weather and natural disasters. Unless CO₂ emissions are significantly reduced very soon, it is inevitable that the effects of disaster will exceed many (and ultimately all) societies' mitigation capacity. Compounding unmitigated disaster effects will slowly but surely push a society towards collapse. Because no part of the planet is safe from the increase in natural disaster intensity and because some of the effects of disasters — such as refugees and economic decline — spill over boundaries, this will eventually lead to global societal collapse. Furthermore, just reducing CO₂ emissions is insufficient to prevent this, as disaster intensity is expected to exceed mitigation capacity in some global regions within one or two decades from now. To avoid a cascade of collapse it is necessary to reverse economic globalization and decrease long-distance trade, as well as to implement a global resettlement program for the increasing number of climate refugees.
- Metadata:
- xml
- Status:
- Published
- Last Updated:
- 4 years ago
- License:
- Attribution
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disasters-collapse.pdf